e-ISSN 2231-8542
ISSN 1511-3701

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A Stochastic Model of Daily Rainfall for Universiti Pertanian Malaysia, Serdang.

M. Zohadie Bardaie and Ahmad Che Abdul Salam

Pertanika Journal of Tropical Agricultural Science, Volume 4, Issue 1, July 1981

Keywords: Stochastic model; daily rainfall; simulation

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An application of stochastic process for describing and analysing daily the rainfall pattern at Universiti Pertanian Malaysia (U.P.M.), Serdang, is presented. A model based on the first-order Markov chain was developed. The model uses historical rainfall data to estimate the Markov transition probabilities. The year is divided into four seasons, each is represented by a separate transition probability matrix. The range of rainfall values is divided into eleven states, thus resulting into 11 x 11 transition probability matrix for each season. The model is capable of simulating a daily rainfall record of any length for the area. It is evaluated by comparing the simulation result with observed data for a one-year period.

ISSN 1511-3701

e-ISSN 2231-8542

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