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Performance Evaluation of Different Membership Function in Fuzzy Logic Based Short-Term Load Forecasting

Oladimeji Ibrahim, Waheed Olaide Owonikoko, Abubakar Abdulkarim, Abdulrahman Okino Otuoze, Mubarak Akorede Afolayan, Ibrahim Sani Madugu, Mutiu Shola Bakare and Kayode Elijah Adedayo

Pertanika Journal of Science & Technology, Volume 29, Issue 2, April 2021


Keywords: Artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, load forecasting, mean absolute percentage error, MF, short-term

Published on: 30 April 2021

A mismatch between utility-scale electricity generation and demand often results in resources and energy wastage that needed to be minimized. Therefore, the utility company needs to be able to accurately forecast load demand as a guide for the planned generation. Short-term load forecast assists the utility company in projecting the future energy demand. The predicted load demand is used to plan ahead for the power to be generated, transmitted, and distributed and which is crucial to power system reliability and economics. Recently, various methods from statistical, artificial intelligence, and hybrid methods have been widely used for load forecasts with each having their merits and drawbacks. This paper investigates the application of the fuzzy logic technique for short-term load forecast of a day ahead load. The developed fuzzy logic model used time, temperature, and historical load data to forecast 24 hours load demand. The fuzzy models were based on both the trapezoidal and triangular membership function (MF) to investigate their accuracy and effectiveness for the load forecast. The obtained low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Forecast Error (MFE), and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) values from the forecasted load results showed that both models are suitable for short-term load forecasting, however the trapezoidal MF showed better performance than the triangular MF.

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