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Combination of Forecasts with an Application to Unemployment Rate

Muniroh, M. F., Ismail, N. and Lazim, M. A.

Pertanika Journal of Science & Technology, Volume 25, Issue 3, July 2017

Keywords: Combination forecast, unemployment rate, error correction model

Published on: 20 Jun 2017

Combining forecast values based on simple univariate models may produce more favourable results than complex models. In this study, the results of combining the forecast values of Naďve model, Single Exponential Smoothing Model, The Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and Holt Method are shown to be superior to that of the Error Correction Model (ECM).Malaysia's unemployment rates data are used in this study. The independent variable used in the ECM formulation is the industrial production index. Both data sets were collected for the months of January 2004 to December 2010. The selection criteria used to determine the best model, is the Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Initial findings showed that both time series data sets were not influenced by the seasonality effect.

ISSN 0128-7680

e-ISSN 2231-8526

Article ID

JST-S0069-2016

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