Home / Special Issue / JST Vol. 32 (S1) 2024 / JST(S)-0596-2023

 

Solar Energy Prediction Based on Intelligent Predictive Controller Algorithm

Linnet Jaya Savarimuthu, Kirubakaran Victor, Preethi Davaraj, Ganeshan Pushpanathan, Raja Kandasamy, Ramshankar Pushpanathan, Mohanavel Vinayagam, Sachuthananthan Barathy and Vivek Sivakumar

Pertanika Journal of Science & Technology, Volume 32, Issue S1, December 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.47836/pjst.32.S1.05

Keywords: Energy demand, future response, model predictive control, performance analysis, prediction, renewable energy, smart grid, system identification

Published on: 19 January 2024

The technological advancement in all countries leads to massive energy demand. The energy trading companies struggle daily to meet their customers’ power demands. For a good quality, disturbance-free, and reliable power supply, one must balance electricity generation and consumption at the grid level. There is a profound change in distribution networks due to the intervention of renewable energy generation and grid interactions. Renewable energy sources like solar and wind depend on environmental factors and are subject to unpredictable variations. Earlier, energy distribution companies faced a significant challenge in demand forecasting since it is often unpredictable. With the prediction of the ever-varying power from renewable sources, the power generation and distribution agencies are facing a challenge in supply-side predictions. Several forecasting techniques have evolved, and machine learning techniques like the model predictive controller are suitable for arduous tasks like predicting weather-dependent power generation in advance. This paper employs a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) to predict the solar array’s power. The proposed method also includes a system identification algorithm, which helps acquire, format, validate, and identify the pattern based on the raw data obtained from a PV system. Autocorrelation and cross-correlation value between input and predicted output 0.02 and 0.15. The model predictive controller helps to recognize the future response of the corresponding PV plant over a specific prediction horizon. The error variation of the predicted values from the actual values for the proposed system is 0.8. The performance analysis of the developed model is compared with the former existing techniques, and the role and aptness of the proposed system in smart grid digitization is also discussed.

  • Abdullah, N. A., Abd Rahim, N., Gan, C. K., & Nor Adzman, N. (2019). Forecasting solar power using hybrid firefly and particle swarm optimization (HFPSO) for optimizing the parameters in a wavelet transform-adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (WT-ANFIS). Applied Sciences, 9(16), 3214. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9163214

  • Abuella, M., & Chowdhury, B. (2015, October 4-6). Solar power forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks [Paper presentation]. North American Power Symposium (NAPS), Charlotte, USA. https://doi.org/10.1109/NAPS.2015.7335176

  • Accenture. (2016). Recommendations for Updating India Smart Grid Roadmap: 2016.

  • Aliberti, A., Bottaccioli, L., Cirrincione, G., Macii, E., Acquaviva, A., & Patti, E. (2018). ForecastingShort-term Solar Radiation for Photovoltaic Energy Predictions. International Conference on Smart Cities and Green ICT Systems. 44–53. https://doi.org/ 10.5220/0006683600440053

  • Alqahtani, A., Marafi, S., Musallam, B., El, N., Abd., & D., Khalek, E., (2016). Photovoltaic power forecasting model based on nonlinear system identification. Canadian Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 39(3). https://doi.org/ 10.1109/CJECE.2016.2584081

  • Andrade, J. R., & Bessa, R. J. (2017). Improving renewable energy forecasting with a grid of numerical weather predictions. IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, 8(4), 1571-1580. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2017.2694340

  • Arnold, M., & Andersson, G. (2011, August 22-26). Model predictive control of energy storage including uncertain forecasts [Paper presentation]. Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC), Stockholm, Sweden.

  • Basallo-Triana, M. J., Rodríguez-Sarasty, J. A., & Benitez-Restrepo, H. D. (2017). Analogue-based demand forecasting of short life-cycle products: a regression approach and a comprehensive assessment. International Journal of Production Research, 55(8), 2336-2350. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2016.1241443

  • Brown, M. A., & Zhou, S. (2013). Smart‐grid policies: An international review. In P. D. Lund, J. Byrne, R. Haas & S. Flynn (Eds.) Advances in Energy Systems: The Large‐scale renewable energy integration challenge (pp.127-147). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119508311.ch8

  • Chugh, A., Chaudhary, P., & Rizwan, M. (2015, December 17-20). Fuzzy logic approach for short term solar energy forecasting [Paper presentation]. Annual IEEE India Conference (INDICON), New Delhi, India. https://doi.org/10.1109/INDICON.2015.7443206

  • Clastres, C. (2011). Smart grids: Another step towards competition, energy security and climate change objectives. Energy policy, 39(9), 5399-5408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.024

  • Das, R. K., Nayak, B., Ganeshan, P., Gautam, S. S., & Mandal, K. K. (2023) Dynamic mechanical behavior of a nano sized alumina fiber reinforced epoxy hybrid composites. Materials Today: Proceedings, 76(Part 3), 524-527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2022.11.158.

  • Ehsan, R. M., Simon, S. P., & Venkateswaran, P. R. (2014, December 17-18). Artificial neural network predictor for grid-connected solar photovoltaic installations at atmospheric temperature [Paper presentation]. International Conference on Advances in Green Energy (ICAGE), Thiruvananthapuram, India. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICAGE.2014.7050142

  • Enríquez, R., Jiménez, M. J., & del Rosario Heras, M. (2016). Solar forecasting requirements for buildings MPC. Energy Procedia, 91, 1024-1032. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2016.06.271

  • Frei, C. W. (2008). What if…? Utility vision 2020. Energy Policy, 36(10), 3640-3645. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.016

  • Godina, R., Rodrigues, E. M., Pouresmaeil, E., Matias, J. C., & Catalão, J. P. (2018). Model predictive control home energy management and optimization strategy with demand response. Applied Sciences, 8(3), 408. https://doi.org/10.3390/app8030408

  • Gonela, V., Salazar, D., Zhang, J., Osmani, A., Awudu, I., & Altman, B. (2019). Designing a sustainable stochastic electricity generation network with hybrid production strategies. International Journal of Production Research, 57(8), 2304-2326. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2018.1516900

  • Gopinath, M. S., Balaji, R., & Kirubakaran, V. (2014, March 13-15). Cost effective methods to improve the power output of a solar panel: An experimental investigation [Paper presentation]. Power and Energy Systems Conference: Towards Sustainable Energy, Bangalore, India. https://doi.org/10.1109/PESTSE.2014.6805282

  • Gorinevsky, D. (2005). Lecture 14 - Model predictive control part 1: The concept. In EE392m: Control engineering in industry (pp.14-26). Sandford University. https://web.stanford.edu/class/archive/ee/ee392m/ee392m.1056/Lecture14_MPC.pdf

  • Guermoui, M., Melgani, F., & Danilo, C. (2018). Multi-step ahead forecasting of daily global and direct solar radiation: a review and case study of Ghardaia region. Journal of Cleaner Production, 201, 716-734. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.08.006

  • Gupta, A. (2018, July 25). Overview- Forecasting and scheduling regulations in the Indian States. Renewables Now. https://renewablesnow.com/news/overview-forecasting-scheduling-regulations-in-indian-states-621216/

  • Halvgaard, R., Bacher, P., Perers, B., Andersen, E., Furbo, S., Jørgensen, J. B., Poulsen, N. K., & Madsen, H. (2012). Model predictive control for a smart solar tank based on weather and consumption forecasts. Energy Procedia, 30, 270-278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2012.11.032

  • Hernández-Hernández, C., Rodríguez, F., Moreno, J. C., da Costa Mendes, P. R., Normey-Rico, J. E., & Guzmán, J. L. (2017). The comparison study of short-term prediction methods to enhance the model predictive controller applied to microgrid energy management. Energies, 10(7), 884. https://doi.org/10.3390/en10070884

  • IRENA. (2018). Renewable power generation costs in 2017 (Technical report). The International Renewable Energy Agency. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Jan/IRENA_2017_Power_Costs_2018_summary.pdf

  • India Smart Grid Forum. (2019). Smart Grid Bulletin. https://indiasmartgrid.org/isgf/public/bulletin/1682057744wX5jhWnzL1u1maXAPbFyEv9AWng722hLtN1pWXQQ.pdf

  • Jain. A. (2016, September 16). Why smart homes are popular. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/features/homes-and-gardens/Why-smart-homes-are-popular/article14384601.ece

  • Jeon, H. W., Taisch, M., & Prabhu, V. V. (2015). Modelling and analysis of energy footprint of manufacturing systems. International Journal of Production Research, 53(23), 7049-7059. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2014.961208

  • Jin, T., Shi, T., & Park, T. (2018). The quest for carbon-neutral industrial operations: Renewable power purchase versus distributed generation. International Journal of Production Research, 56(17), 5723-5735. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2017.1394593

  • Karan, M. (2019, July 22). How India in a short period of time has become the cheapest producer of solar power. Economic Times. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/productline/power-generation/how-india-in-a-short-period-of-time-has-become-the-cheapest-producer-of-solar-power/articleshow/70325301.cms

  • Kazantzidis, A., Nikitidou, E., Salamalikis, V., Tzoumanikas, P., & Zagouras, A. (2018). New challenges in solar energy resource and forecasting in Greece. International Journal of Sustainable Energy, 37(5), 428-435. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786451.2017.1280495

  • Kazem, H. A., Yousif, J. H., & Chaichan, M. T. (2016). Modeling of daily solar energy system prediction using support vector machine for Oman. International Journal of Applied Engineering Research, 11(20), 10166-10172. https://doi.org/10.19026/rjaset.13.2936

  • Kenning, T. (2016, Feb 15). Lack of skilled workforce for India’s rapidly growing solar sector. PV Tech.

  • Khalil, T. M. (1981). Comparative analysis of energy resources. The International Journal of Production Research, 19(4), 401-409. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207548108956668

  • Khosravi, A., Nunes, R. O., Assad, M. E. H., & Machado, L. (2018). Comparison of artificial intelligence methods in estimation of daily global solar radiation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 194, 342-358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.05.147

  • Kuhe, A., Achirgbenda, V. T., & Agada, M. (2021). Global solar radiation prediction for Makurdi, Nigeria, using neural networks ensemble. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 43(11), 1373-1385. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567036.2019.1637481

  • Kumari, V., (2017). Future of microgrids in India. International Journal of Research in Engineering and Technology. 6 (2), 70-73. https://doi.org/10.15623/ijret.2017.0602011

  • Lampropoulos, I., Vanalme, G. M., & Kling, W. L. (2010, October 11-13). A methodology for modeling the behavior of electricity prosumers within the smart grid [Paper presentation]. IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe (ISGT Europe), Gothenburg, Sweden. https://doi.org/10.1109/ISGTEUROPE.2010.5638967

  • Lee, J., Zhang, P., Gan, L. K., Howey, D. A., Osborne, M. A., Tosi, A., & Duncan, S. (2018). Optimal operation of an energy management system using model predictive control and Gaussian process time-series modeling. IEEE Journal of Emerging and Selected Topics in Power Electronics, 6(4), 1783-1795. https://doi.org/10.1109/JESTPE.2018.2820071

  • Lin, K. P., & Pai, P. F. (2016). Solar power output forecasting using evolutionary seasonal decomposition least-square support vector regression. Journal of Cleaner Production, 134(Part B), 456-462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.08.099

  • Liu, X., Paritosh, P., Awalgaonkar, N. M., Bilionis, I., & Karava, P. (2018). Model predictive control under forecast uncertainty for optimal operation of buildings with integrated solar systems. Solar Energy, 171, 953-970. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.06.038

  • Lund, P. D., Byrne, J., Haas, R., & Flynn, D. (Eds.). (2019). Advances in Energy Systems: The Large‐scale renewable energy integration challenge. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119508311.ch8

  • Mandal, P., Madhira, S. T. S., Meng, J., & Pineda, R. L. (2012). Forecasting power output of solar photovoltaic system using wavelet transform and artificial intelligence techniques. Procedia Computer Science, 12, 332-337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2012.09.080

  • Marimuthu, C., & Kirubakaran, V. (2014). A critical review of factors affecting wind turbine and solar cell system power production. International Journal of Advance Engineering Research Studies 3(2), 143-147.

  • Mikhaylidi, Y., Naseraldin, H., & Yedidsion, L. (2015). Operations scheduling under electricity time-varying prices. International Journal of Production Research, 53(23), 7136-7157. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2015.1058981

  • Moon, J. Y., & Park, J. (2014). Smart production scheduling with time-dependent and machine-dependent electricity cost by considering distributed energy resources and energy storage. International Journal of Production Research, 52(13), 3922-3939. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2013.860251

  • National Energy Policy. (2017). NITI Aayog, Government of India. https://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/new_initiatives/NEP-ID_27.06.2017.pdf

  • Ncane, Z. P., & Saha, A. K. (2019, January 28-30). Forecasting solar power generation using fuzzy logic and artificial neural network [Paper presentation]. Southern African Universities Power Engineering Conference/Robotics and Mechatronics/Pattern Recognition Association of South Africa (SAUPEC/RobMech/PRASA), Bloemfontein, South Africa. https://doi.org/10.1109/RoboMech.2019.8704737

  • Oldewurtel, F., Parisio, A., Jones, C. N., Gyalistras, D., Gwerder, M., Stauch, V., Lehmann, B., & Morari, M. (2012). Use of model predictive control and weather forecasts for energy efficient building climate control. Energy and buildings, 45, 15-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.09.022

  • Ozoegwu, C. G. (2019). Artificial neural network forecast of monthly mean daily global solar radiation of selected locations based on time series and month number. Journal of Cleaner Production, 216, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.01.096

  • Padmanathan, K., Govindarajan, U., Ramachandaramurthy, V. K., Rajagopalan, A., Pachaivannan, N., Sowmmiya, U., Padmanaban, S., Holm-Nielsen, J. B., Xavier, S., & Periasamy, S. K. (2019). A sociocultural study on solar photovoltaic energy system in India: Stratification and policy implication. Journal of cleaner production, 216, 461-481.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.225

  • Parisio, A., Wiezorek, C., Kyntäjä, T., Elo, J., & Johansson, K. H. (2015, August 24-28). An MPC-based energy management system for multiple residential microgrids [Paper presentation]. IEEE International Conference on Automation Science and Engineering (CASE), Gothenburg, Sweden. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/servlet/opac?punumber=7279855

  • Prabhu, V. V., Trentesaux, D., & Taisch, M. (2015). Energy-aware manufacturing operations. International Journal of Production Research, 53(23), 6994-7004. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2015.1100766

  • Raja, K., Ganeshan, P., Singh, B. K., Upadhyay, R. K., Ramshankar, P., & Mohanavel, V. (2023). Effect of mol.% of Yttria in Zirconia matrix alongside a comparative study among YSZ, alumina & ZTA ceramics in terms of mechanical and functional properties. Sādhanā, 48(2), 72. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12046-023-02136-w

  • Ramachandra, T. V., Jha, R. K., Krishna, S. V., & Shruthi, B. V. (2005). Solar energy decision support system. International Journal of Sustainable Energy, 24(4), 207-224. https://doi.org/10.1080/14786450500292105

  • Ramedani, Z., Omid, M., & Keyhani, A. (2013). Modeling solar energy potential in a Tehran province using artificial neural networks. International Journal of Green Energy, 10(4), 427-441. https://doi.org/10.1080/15435075.2011.647172

  • Renewables Now. (July 25). https://renewablesnow.com/news/overview-forecasting-scheduling-regulations-in-indian-states-621216/

  • Rodat, S., Tantolin, C., Le Pivert, X., & Lespinats, S. (2016). Daily forecast of solar thermal energy production for heat storage management. Journal of Cleaner Production, 139, 86-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.08.019

  • Sassi, O., & Oulamara, A. (2017). Electric vehicle scheduling and optimal charging problem: complexity, exact and heuristic approaches. International Journal of Production Research, 55(2), 519-535. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2016.1192695

  • Semero, Y. K., Zhang, J., & Zheng, D. (2018). PV power forecasting using an integrated GA-PSO-ANFIS approach and Gaussian process regression based feature selection strategy. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 4(2), 210-218. https://doi.org/10.17775/CSEEJPES.2016.01920

  • Shahriar, M. S., Ahmed, M. A., Rahman, M. I., & Khan, A. I. (2013, December 19-21). Comparison of MPC and conventional control methods for the stability enhancement of UPFC connected SMIB system [Paper presentation]. 2nd International Conference on Advances in Electrical Engineering (ICAEE), Dkaka, Bangladesh. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICAEE.2013.6750337

  • Singh, S. N., Prathiba, V. S., & Katiki, N. (2015, August 7-8). Smart micro grid model for rural India [Paper presentation]. 2nd International conference on Innovative Engineering Technologies (ICIET), Bangkok, Thailand. https://doi.org/10.15242/iie.e0815022

  • Sivaneasan, B., Yu, C. Y., & Goh, K. P. (2017). Solar forecasting using ANN with fuzzy logic pre-processing. Energy procedia, 143, 727-732. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.12.753

  • Suresh, V., Naviynkumar, S., & Kirubakaran, V. (2013, December). Improved power output of PV system by low cost evaporative cooling technology. In 2013 International Conference on Green Computing, Communication and Conservation of Energy (ICGCE) (pp. 640-643). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICGCE.2013.6823514

  • Taki, M., Rohani, A., Yildizhan, H., & Farhadi, R. (2019). Energy-exergy modeling of solar radiation with most influencing input parameters. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 41(17), 2128-2144. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567036.2018.1550126

  • Taticchi, P., Garengo, P., Nudurupati, S. S., Tonelli, F., & Pasqualino, R. (2015). A review of decision-support tools and performance measurement and sustainable supply chain management. International Journal of Production Research, 53(21), 6473-6494.https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2014.939239

  • Vassiliadis, D. (2000). System identification, modeling, and prediction for space weather environments. IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science, 28(6), 1944-1955. https://doi.org/10.1109/27.902223

  • Vigneshwari, C. A., Velan, S. S. S., Venkateshwaran, M., Mydeen, M. A., & Kirubakaran, V. (2016, April). Performance and economic study of on-grid and off-grid solar photovoltaic system. In 2016 international conference on energy efficient technologies for sustainability (ICEETS) (pp. 239-244). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICEETS.2016.7582933

  • Vinayagar, K., Ganeshan, P., Raja, P. N., Hussain, M. S. Z., Kumar, P. V., Ramshankar, P., Mohanavel, V., Mathankumar, N., Raja, K., & Bezabih, T. T. (2022). Optimization of crashworthiness parameters of thin-walled conoidal structures. Advances in Materials Science and Engineering, 2022, 4475605. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4475605

  • Viswavandya, M., & Mohanty, A. (2018). Fuzzy logic and ANFIS based short term solar energy forecasting. International Journal on Future Revolution in Computer Science & Communication Engineering, 4, 631-636.

  • Yadav, H. K., Pal, Y., & Tripathi, M. M. (2019a). A novel GA-ANFIS hybrid model for short-term solar PV power forecasting in Indian electricity market. Journal of Information and Optimization Sciences, 40(2), 377-395. https://doi.org/10.1080/02522667.2019.1580880

  • Yadav, H. K., Pal, Y., & Tripathi, M. M. (2019b). PSO tuned ANFIS model for short term photovoltaic power forecasting. International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering, 7(6), 937-942.

  • Yaniktepe, B., Kara, O., & Ozalp, C. (2017). The global solar radiation estimation and analysis of solar energy: Case study for Osmaniye, Turkey. International Journal of Green Energy, 14(9), 765-773. https://doi.org/10.1080/15435075.2017.1329148

  • Zafarani, R., Eftekharnejad, S., & Patel, U. (2018). Assessing the utility of weather data for photovoltaic power prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:1802.03913. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1802.03913

  • Zame, K. K., Brehm, C. A., Nitica, A. T., Richard, C. L., & Schweitzer, G. D. (2018). Smart grid and energy storage: Policy recommendations. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 82(Part 1), 1646-1654. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.07.011

  • Zendehboudi, A., Baseer, M. A., & Saidur, R. (2018). Application of support vector machine models for forecasting solar and wind energy resources: A review. Journal of Cleaner Production, 199, 272-285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.07.164

ISSN 0128-7680

e-ISSN 2231-8526

Article ID

JST(S)-0596-2023

Download Full Article PDF

Share this article

Recent Articles